Tag Archives: futurism

Why the world is not ready for democratic socialism

I’ve taken to calling myself a democratic socialist since Bernie Sanders ran, but it’s more accurate to say we are social democrats and so are all major leftist European parties I know of. This means that we want income redistribution and a welfare state with consider protections, but we don’t actually desire to completely dismantle capitalism in the next fifty years. Anyone who tried to create a democratic socialist state would come under siege, so how could a democratic socialist state survive and thrive?

As I see it, we have to resolve a set of ideological challenges globally before any countries can have actual democratic socialism and make it last. Otherwise hostile external capitalistic states and wealthy ideologues will meddle in our elections and appeal to the baser instincts of greed and apathy that are in any state, attack the weak points, buy our democratically elected representatives, undermine the incentives, undermine the liberal education system, and undermine any attempt at a new rules-based world order. Otherwise, immigrants who want economic benefits without giving up totalitarian ideologies will enter and sabotage our democratic countries.This is what keeps me from allying myself fully with actual democratic socialism right now, even though capitalism is likely to waste our non-renewable resources and destroy itself without regulation.

During the cold war Kenneth Waltz (who created the structural realism theory of international relations) observed it is rare for democracies to fight democracies, and he suggested that is a necessary step to ending war. (The caveat being that democracies are more likely to distrust totalitarian states and to go to war to try and make them into democracies. Still, unless totalitarianism is ever desirable, then I am likely to believe that we need to spread functioning democracy to the majority of countries for peace and prosperity. )

Capitalism is just one of a bunch of ticking doomsday clocks. We ultimately have to find a solution to several problems at once because out if any of the doomsday clocks hit zero, an existential threat will rise and civilization or our species will perish.

One of those threats is the totalitarianism of Islam which is the only religion which has countries that give the death penalty to those who leave it. Several other countries like Russia and China are in an AI arms race, and in the not so distant future misaligned general AI could feed us bad information, be as bad as a nuclear war,  and kill us all. We must make it as unthinkable for states like China and the USA to go to war as it is for California to go to war with Nevada, otherwise anything like democratic socialism will remain out of reach.

Also, a evolutionary psychologist and libertarian I listened to thinks that due to how we evolved we are better at managing things at a small level with interpersonal relationships, than at  big level where it’s more complicated. It will take time to design systems and frameworks that compensate for those limitations,  and as long as the world is a turbulent mess in Africa, the Middle East, Russia, and parts of Asia, I just don’t see any breathing room for imagination.

 

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Spreading democracy is a simple step toward ending war

“democracies seldom fight democracies”,[20] although democracies are more likely to initiate wars against non-democracies because the former believes the latter must become democratized so as to make the democratic peace more robust.

Kenneth Waltz,

Well, I can get behind that idea much easier than the disproven overly-reductive idea that countries that have McDonalds won’t fight each other. Once everyone is in a  democracy there will be a lot less war. Of course, we’ll still need to get rid of a few things like Islam (which is wedded to a totalitarian ideology), and also the cycles of revenge for this plan to work, but spreading democracy would be a major step.

Future sex dolls and sex robots

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PTLxfIgyBs

This is a pretty cool development. Silicon models have been around for 40, but much cheaper TPE models have recently appeared and are becoming increasingly realistic. The most respected custom platinum treated silicon models still cost $8,000 in Japan, but the Chinese TPE doll in this video goes from $750-2000 (Amazon and WMdolls sells it) with more and Chinese companies appearing to drive a price war. Gradually improvements are being made to the underlying metal and wire skeletons to allow more mobility, durability, and weight reductions.
I’m pretty sure that in 50 years the uncanny valley will disappear, interactivity will rise, and the folk ill prefer to have sex with robots rather than porn, prostitutes with STDs, or just ordinary men/women that don’t look like models. At some price point and level of realism, most people will lose their qualms and it will rapidly become socially acceptable from there on. 10 years ago there was even a story about a Japanese company that would rent them out and deliver them to customers, before taking them back, cleaning and repairing them, sort of like an escort company.
Old widows and disfigured people will probably especially find them therapeutic too. We will be able to evolve towards more intellectual pursuits when our sexual needs are more easily satisfied. Maybe we will choose partners for intelligence rather than looks or gender, when it becomes the new normal for every person to have a ready collection of cheap, willing, and vastly more appealing sex dolls at home, and a collection of replaceable wigs and swappable faces.
The history of these things is pretty interesting on wikipedia. Apparently the first known sex dolls were created by Dutch sailors 300 years ago from clothing they crudely sewed together with were known as “Dutch Wives.” The first sex dolls ever written about in Europe were in Paris circa 1908, and after the advent of silicon in the 1950’s they’ve gradually become more realistic. (Importing them or anything else deemed obscene was banned in Britain until the late 1980s.) Conservatives will probably still have a knee-jerk opposition to the dolls, but they can only delay them slightly, and definitely can’t stop progress.
I predict that a few years after the Occulus rift comes out, disappointed VR enthusiasts who desire a tactile touch will begin to seriously experiment with animating these dolls and warming them up. Reuters already wrote a story about the expansion of porn into VR and attempts to add sensors to dolls which would change the animations in VR.
Sex robots are hardly a hypothetical anymore, and they will come about as an incremental improvement from what we already posses. The question is no longer “if,” but “when.” I expect early prototypes will definitely appear in my lifetime; sex dolls with voices that are programmed to carry on simple learned conversations will probably will appear within the next 20 years. Animating the dolls will only be expensive at the start, and I think interest in refining sex robots will be carried over to build and program useful robot butlers/household servants.

Crest of the Stars Appreciation

The future will be like in the Crest of the Stars universe.

> a race of superior humans is born when space traders genetically engineer themselves to be even more optimized for life in space

>the new humans thrive in low gravity, are smarter at doing computations with the ship computers and navigating in 3D space

>they live twice as long, and incidentally have blue hair.

>marriage ceases to be an institution, and it’s common for a girl to have genetic material from six fathers.

>the new race, the Abn, become culturally superior to other humans

> they are genetically superior to humans in every way and gradually assimilate most of the galaxy under their enlightened hegemony

This manga is why I stopped reading sci-fi novels and came to love manga. If I had only known there’s nothing else like it in Japanese, and most Japanese don’t like space opera, I might have kept reading sci-fi instead. Just a few pages made me think eugenics is cool, and “I want more space princesses who haughtily tell planetary civilizations they have primitive cultures.”

crest-of-the-stars-136

crest-of-the-stars-138

Here’s my response to traditionalists who reject being a cuckhold, and who aren’t attracted at the aspect of having your daughter come from 5 other dudes:

No man's sky random life.jpg

not wanting a genetically engineered superior baby

preferring random chance for muh feels